The October airstrikes by Israel against Iran have elevated the stakes for the country’s leadership to make a critical choice on how to respond. Given a central decision on whether to strike back with another ballistic missile attack or not, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his advisory team are calculating the choices that balance reprisal with the fear of a further escalation. Iran might feel it has to react and make sure its regional power isn’t eroded further; this will further incense Israel, which has pledged to retaliate.
Since October 1, Iran has clearly expressed its right to self-defense under the UN Charter, Article 51. The recent responses from Israel in support of U.S. military aid have further worsened the situation, thereby complicating diplomatic efforts at hand. President Biden called for restraint on Israel except for attacks on Iran’s vital infrastructure, such as nuclear and energy sites, which might allow for any potential diplomatic negotiations.
The situation becomes complicated by upcoming U.S. elections, and the outcome is likely to affect U.S. policy. In UN debates recently, Iran showed a willingness to new nuclear talks and indicated a way forward in de-escalation of hostilities. The conflict continues, with Israel pounding northern Gaza in an offense; both sides are measuring the next level, as the humanitarian consequences worsen with regional and global appeals for restraint on all sides.
The October 25 airstrikes by Israel against Iran have elevated the stakes for the country’s leadership to make a critical choice on how to respond. Given a central decision on whether to strike back with another ballistic missile attack or not, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his advisory team are calculating the choices that balance reprisal with the fear of a further escalation. Iran might feel it has to react and make sure its regional power isn’t eroded further; this will further incense Israel, which has pledged to retaliate.
Since October 1, Iran has clearly expressed its right to self-defense under the UN Charter, Article 51. The recent responses from Israel in support of U.S. military aid have further worsened the situation, thereby complicating diplomatic efforts at hand. President Biden called for restraint on Israel except for attacks on Iran’s vital infrastructure, such as nuclear and energy sites, which might allow for any potential diplomatic negotiations.
The situation becomes complicated by upcoming U.S. elections, and the outcome is likely to affect U.S. policy. In UN debates recently, Iran showed a willingness to new nuclear talks and indicated a way forward in de-escalation of hostilities. The conflict continues, with Israel pounding northern Gaza in an offense; both sides are measuring the next level, as the humanitarian consequences worsen with regional and global appeals for restraint on all sides.