Last updated on August 29th, 2024 at 07:40 am
TEHRAN: An already bad situation escalates as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, issues a request to strike Israel directly over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. According to three Iranian officials, including two members of the country’s Revolutionary Guards briefed on the order, the New York Times reported it.
Khamenei ordered it during an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Wednesday morning after the assassination of Haniyeh was announced.
Accusations and Denials
Israel, which is fighting the Hamas group in Gaza, has neither denied nor confirmed its involvement in Haniyeh’s assassination. Haniyeh had been attending the inauguration of Iran’s new president in Tehran, Masoud Pezeshkian.
Historical Context of Israeli Behaviour
The NYT reported that Israel was targeting Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists until recently. The compulsion of militants during the ongoing conflict in Gaza is also heightened. This forces Iran to pile pressure through its allies and proxy forces but so far, Tehran has refrained from war with Israeli forces.
Iran struck back in April after an Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus killed several Iranian military commanders and fired hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel in one of the most overt attacks yet.
Iranian military leaders are considering a drone-and-missile assault on military targets around Tel Aviv and Haifa, without the need to hit highly populated areas. One scenario is coordinated, simultaneous strikes from Iran and proximal proxies such as Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.
Khamenei has instructed military commanders to get ready for ‘offensive and defensive’ measures as the conflict escalates to include attacks from Israel or the US.
Statements by Officials and Implications for the Region
In a released statement, Khamenei asserted that avenging the death of Haniyeh was a duty and went to insinuate that Israel would face dire consequences. Other speakers included Iranian President Pezeshkian and elites from the foreign ministry and high-ranking officials of the Revolutionary Guards, all asserting that Iran is independent and will do everything in its power to protect its people.
The “axis of resistance” – Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and a myriad of Iraqi militias – remains at the heart of Iran’s regional posture. Leaders of such groups were present for Pezeshkian’s swearing-in in Tehran.
Breach in Security and Regional Deterrence
The killing of Haniyeh, branded as a serious security breach, came at the hands of Israel at a Revolutionary Guards guesthouse and underlined weaknesses in the supposedly secure layers of Iranian defenses. In retaliation, analysts said, Tehran viewed it as needed not only to avenge Haniyeh but also as a deterrent against any possible future Israeli attacks on high-profile targets like the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, or General Ismail Qaani.
“Iran is probably convinced that it has no other choice but to retaliate, in order to deter the Israelis from continuing their attacks, to protect its sovereignty and credibility in the eyes of its partners in the region,” said Ali Vaez, Iran director of the International Crisis Group.