Last updated on August 29th, 2024 at 09:35 am
Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has gained ground on Republican Donald Trump in six of seven key battleground states, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of registered voters conducted online from July 24-28 since President Joe Biden bowed out of the presidential race.
Majority results:
- Michigan: Harris leads Trump by 11 points.
- Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada: Harris leads Trump by 2 points.
- Pennsylvania: Trump leads Harris by 4 points
- North Carolina: Trump leads by 2 points.
- Georgia: Both candidates are tied.
Detailed Analysis: The new poll results mark a sharp contrast to the previous ones conducted when Biden was in the race. Harris of late has increased her stride in Michigan, while in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, she stands above Trump, which further suggests competitiveness in these states.
- Wisconsin: An Isolating Case Wisconsin is the only state out of these seven in which Trump has improved a negative margin versus Biden’s earlier mark. That might indicate that a dynamic of Wisconsin voter sentiment may be shifting.
Comparative Poll Results: In a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 1-5, Trump was leading in the following states:
- Arizona: Trump led by 3 points.
- Georgia: Trump led by 1 point.
- Nevada: Trump was up 3.
- North Carolina: Trump was up 3.
- Pennsylvania: Trump was up 7.
- Michigan: Biden was up 5.
- Wisconsin: Biden was up 3.
Margin of Error: The margin of error for the new poll is as follows in each of the states:
- 3 percentage points: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania.
- 4 percentage points: Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin.
- 5 percentage points: Nevada.
Conclusion: Kamala Harris’ surge closer to Donald Trump after the exit by Joe Biden from the race has left political dynamics in the swing states fluid. The next few months will determine whether Harris holds on to her surge and expands, or Trump regains his momentum.
Source: Bloomberg News/Morning Consult Poll, July 24-28, 2024.