Senior US officials are holding the fort in efforts of mediation to reach a deal on a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, with cautious optimism expressed by Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati as regards the possibility of reaching an agreement. The Biden administration Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and seasoned mediator Amos Hochstein are over in Israel for talks. Whether anything is going to be agreed upon before next week’s US presidential election is anybody’s guess.
Escalating in violence, Israel has already launched massive aerial and ground attacks along southern Lebanon that killed several people and forced others out of their homes. While at least 2,200 people are said to be confirmed dead, over a million are displaced, mainly Shia members, whose influx now overwhelms the already strained social services in Lebanon. It is said that the core objective of Israel is re-establishing security along its border and enabling some 60,000 residents dislodged by Hezbollah strikes to return to their villages.
According to new reports, a draft ceasefire proposal reportedly authored by the United States, details a 60-day ceasefire wherein Israeli forces would pull back, and the Lebanese army would take control of the border. Under the terms, Hezbollah will have to stop armed activities near the border to implement the 2006 United Nations Resolution 1701. However, Lebanese authorities rejected the idea of Israeli retaining its strike rights in case Hezbollah goes back to the border.
Very much due to the new global and local situation, the new head of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, was speaking of a possible ceasefire under conditions. As the international pressure increases and internal uprising calls for de-escalation, the group continues its campaign unless it gets a guarantee of a Gaza ceasefire. In the midst of this rising tension, Israel has continued pushing the attacks by targeting the strongholds of Hezbollah in Baalbek.
As violence increases, the United States is also working on a second, parallel Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage exchange. CIA Director William Burns will travel to Cairo for talks, a development that heralds a greater diplomatic push to resolve linked conflicts across the region.