Berlin: Germans vote on Sunday in two eastern states, with the far-right Alternative for Germany party on course for what could be its first state election win. The vote is viewed as a key litmus test for the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which is under intense pressure just a year from the next federal elections.
AfD Ahead in Thuringia and Saxony
In Thuringia, the AfD is polling at 30%, while in Saxony, the party is running neck and neck with the conservative party at 30-32% of the projected vote. This would be a historic moment, given it would be the first time since World War II that a far-right party holds the most seats in a German state parliament.Difficulties for the State Government to Form an Administration
With such a remarkable performance of AfD, the party would not win any state government even after emerging as a victor because it falls short of the required majority votes in addition to the fact that other parties are unwilling to work with AfD. Further adding complications to coalition-building are increased numbers from another populist party – Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance or BSW.Populist Parties Surge Amid Economic and Social Concerns
Both AfD and BSW have capitalized on widespread discontent in the former Communist-run East, where fears about immigration and the war in Ukraine, added to the cost of living crisis, cut particularly deep. Fears about immigration-a key issue in the AfD campaign-have been heightened by a recent deadly stabbing spree linked to the Islamic State.Implications for Scholz’s Coalition Government
All three parties in Scholz’s federal coalition are likely to take a hit in the elections, with both the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats predicted to struggle to clear the 5% threshold for entry into the state parliaments. Bad results in the East are likely to heighten tensions in the fractions coalition, though analysts say a breakup before the 2025 federal election is unlikely.
The case of state elections in Thuringia and Saxony gives meaning to changes in the political landscape in Germany, especially in the East, where populist and far-right sentiments are growing. With AfD and BSW on the rise, tensions for Chancellor Scholz’s government will also heighten-a pointer to the deep political and social divides in the country.
