The India Meteorological Department, one of India’s oldest scientific institutions, marked its 150th anniversary on Tuesday. For more than a century, the IMD has played a crucial role in providing weather forecasts for a country as large and geographically diverse as India. Yet, despite all this, the IMD still attracts criticism for its sometimes inaccurate predictions, which often come under public scrutiny.
Weather Forecasting in the Tropical Scenario:
A Complicated Task Tropical regions like India pose a much tougher challenge to weather forecasting as compared to temperate zones such as New York or London. It is much more complicated because tropical weather is highly chaotic and extremely sensitive to very small variations in atmospheric conditions. This notwithstanding, short-term IMD forecasts of three days and nowcasts have considerably improved and become remarkably accurate.
Cyclone Forecasting:
A Major Success One of the greatest achievements of the IMD is its accurate forecasting and tracking of cyclones. With the advancement of technology in satellite data and Doppler radar, the IMD can now track cyclones with precision, thereby reducing loss of life and property. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at the IMD event, praised the department for its success in cyclone prediction, emphasizing the role of advanced forecasting in reducing economic losses.
Despite some success stories, IMD does not correctly forecast the Monsoon weather event crucial to India. Since the science is not completely understood, monsoon forecasting has its challenges. And climate change hasn’t helped with a more uncertain picture. After massive investments into research through schemes such as the Monsoon Mission, the long-range forecasts are still lacking accuracy.
Mission Mausam:
A Step Towards Precision In response to these challenges, Prime Minister Modi launched the Rs 2,000-crore Mission Mausam. This initiative aims to deepen the scientific understanding of the Monsoon and improve the IMD’s forecasting capabilities. Through this mission, the hope is to unlock new insights into Monsoon dynamics, potentially leading to more accurate predictions.
The Role of Weather in Society:
How weather affects everyday life is reflected in weather forecasting, ranging from agriculture to disaster preparedness. As the Indian Science Minister Dr. Jitendra Singh puts it, it is not about just weather forecasting but knowing what it is going to bring in terms of effects on daily life and economy. This change in perception is important, particularly for a country like India, where weather-related phenomena, such as the Monsoon and cyclones, significantly determine the economy.
The IMD has made tremendous progress in weather forecasting over the past 150 years, especially on short-term and cyclone prediction. However, the department continues to face problems in long-range forecasts, particularly concerning the Monsoon and droughts. Continued investment and initiatives like Mission Mausam can help the IMD improve its forecasting abilities, and this will be beneficial not only to the environment but also to the economy and citizens of India.
